This USGS Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center (PIERC) topic focuses on using ecosystem modeling and climate projections to predict how Hawaiian and Pacific Island ecosystems may respond to future environmental changes. Scientists integrate regional climate scenarios, species distribution models, and ecosystem interactions to forecast changes in habitat, species range, and ecosystem function under varying climate and disturbance scenarios.
Species range mapping
Students explore modeled maps showing how plant (1,000+ species) or native bird (≈ 20 species) ranges may shift under warming and altered precipitation trends.
Examine how high-resolution regional models capture Hawaii’s unique rainfall gradients (e.g., windward vs. leeward zones) and how those affect species habitats.
Climate scenario comparison
Compare temperature/precipitation predictions under mid-century vs. late-century emissions paths.
Reflect on what these mean for watershed planning, invasive species pressures, forest fire risk, and resource management.
Ecosystem change simulation
Use simplified modeling tools (like Excel or NetLogo) to simulate how shifts in rainfall or temperature impact species presence in multi-species plots.
Discuss interactions (e.g., habitat loss facilitating invasive species establishment) and implications for conservation.
Climate modeling & downscaling: Using global models enhanced for Hawaii’s mountains and rain-shadow to understand local trends.
Species distribution modeling (SDMs): Predicting future geographic ranges of native plants and birds in response to climate shifts.
Ecosystem forecasting: Projecting how altered species composition may affect ecosystem services and conservation priorities.
Climate impacts science: Examining interactions between climate change and invasive species, fire risk, water availability, and species extinction risk.
